1) What are the forces of unification vs. the forces of nationalism, and which will prevail
In Europes recent history, moves have been made to unify the continent into one big community, hence the drive to create the European Union. If there was one thing that had set the wheels of unification in motion, it is the European sense of community as opposed to the spirit of (individual) autonomy in the United States. The forces of unification are the ones behind this drive, initially made up of France, (West) Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. The visionaries of unification bore witness to the horrors of the Second World War which saw the devastation of most of Europe. They hoped that by unification, they would prevent future armed conflicts between neighbors and secure lasting peace in the continent. The road to unification began when neighboring European countries began entering into treaties which called for a common market as these countries gradually lifted trade and customs restrictions on one another to allow for the free movement of goods among them then later it slowly evolved into security agreements among these neighbors which saw the cooperation of their respective armed forces and participating in joint military exercises to affirm this cooperation. Over time, other European nations have signified their intention of joining this union as their economies became stable and at par with the other member countries economies.
On the other end of the spectrum are the forces of nationalism which are mostly found in the east and a smattering of them in central Europe. One example of existing forces of nationalism are the Bosnian Serbs who are fiercely independent and do not like the thought of living under a foreign ruler. Incidentally, they are the ones who fired the opening shots of the First World War. To date, such forces are very small and the circumstances are in favor of the forces of unification as all of Europe seeks to put their forgettable past behind. It is also interesting to note that it was nationalism that caused wars on the continent, particularly the last two world wars. It is a nationalism not limited to merely love for ones country but pride and at the same time (unfortunately) is antagonistic and sees its neighbors as potentially hostile or a threat. In addition, there are also forces of nationalism within the EU member states especially those immensely proud of their culture and heritage and they see this unification as nothing more than an attempt at hegemony. Despite the drive for unification, one of the issues Europeans have to get over which proves to be a challenge is to put behind centuries of animosity or rancor that has made Europe a battleground for several centuries. This hidden animosity could undermine the unity and integrity of the EU if it aims to become one monolithic state.
Unification aims to remove that mentality and create a new one that calls for not only community relationships, but also an improvement in the quality of life, sustained development, respect for universal rights and global cooperation. This is what most people in Europe share after seeing (and learning through history) what wars can do if there is no sense of community and if nationalism would be unchecked and would clash with another nationalism. (Rifkin, 2004).
2) How is Europe likely to conduct itself as a major world power
As a major world power. It intends to rival the current world power, the United States as well as incipient economic powers of Asia such as Japan and China. It would try to compete aggressively in the world market especially as the Euro continues to show signs of strengthening against the reigning US Dollar. Besides competing, it also intends to cooperate or establish stronger economic ties with countries that the US also does business with such as China ad Japan especially in the exchange of goods and technology. In a show of unity, it intends to have its own foreign service arm and will be able to put up embassies worldwide and to be able to enter into international treaties and agreements in behalf of its diverse memberships.
As of the moment, there are other matters that have yet to become a reality for this scenario to happen. One is the need for strong governance. Despite the existence of a European Parliament, it still lacks the clout of the national parliaments of the member nations as well as visionary leadership that can unify all the member nations together and encourage them to work together for the good of the continent, if not the nation (EU). Another factor to consider is not all European nations economies are stable enough to enable them to join the EU, most especially those from eastern Europe whose economies still need to be brought up to speed following decades of communist rule.
Another possible impediment to Europes rise as a world power would be to maintain harmony among its member nations. This heterogenous continent while its population can make it powerful can also undermine it at the same time and it has to maintain a delicate balance in promoting what is good for all of Europe while at the same time not marginalizing or showing no regard for minority groups.
3) What will Europes role in the world be, militarily
As a military power, one advantage the EU will have over the other existing military powers such as the US, China and Russia (should it choose to remain autonomous) is manpower. In terms of size, they would either match or surpass the armed forces. Another factor that should be taken into consideration is that they would rival also the armed forces of the United States in terms of quality and technology. Through the military, it would rival the US not only in terms of global security but also in humanitarian and peacekeeping efforts in troubled regions in the world. Because of this, the creation of an EU armed forces would eliminate the need for NATO since the very reasons for its existence are now gone and the EU is poised to take over the role it has been doing for decades. On the other hand, this can be a blessing for the US since they can only do so much in terms of stretching their resources especially in providing aid and continuing the ongoing war on terrorism.
In terms of leadership, it is very likely that either France or Germany would take the lead in commanding the combined armed forces of the EU. Historically, these two countries have been considered military powers and history can attest to their qualifications. Britain despite being part of the EU is not likely to be active here as it continues to enjoy close military ties with the US (and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) owing to the special relationship between the two countries that date back to the Second World War. In addition, it also finds comfort in being part of the Commonwealth of Nations, a league of nations that used to be Britains former colonies. As far as the French are concerned, the British, also owing to their insular mentality would not be considered a vital cog in the EUs efforts to become a major power. Russia is also unlikely to be part of the military leadership and though it will try to maintain close ties with the western European nations while maintaining its autonomy. Another reason why Russia would not be a part of the EU is the continuing fear and wariness of nations towards Russia which happens to be the largest country in the world with a land area that straddles Asia.
4) How great will European power and prestige be, from an economic standpoint
In terms of the economy, the EU is seen as a common market among the member states where a unified internal trade zone. Long before the EU was created, the pioneering members had already laid down provisions governing the trade and commerce of each member (as well as those who would later join) where their goods would not be heavily taxed much like the relationship between the states in the US. With a united Europe, all the resoures would be pooled to help make its industry and economy much stronger so as long as there is an established mechanism for governing it. By this sharing of resources, it would make Europeans realize that cooperation is the key to their growth and development and it has proven to be far better than going to war with one another to forcefully acquire these resources. As an old aphorism goes, war is robbery writ large.
One edge that Europe has over the US is their mentality towards the economy. They put more emphasis in improving the quality of life of its citizens over the acquisition of wealth which is the prevalent mentality in the US with free enterprise and competitiveness. Most European states such as Sweden and Germany have established welfare systems that ensure that its citizens are taken care of socially. There is also the desire for sustained development over material growth. These are the factors that are not only bound to make Europe economically powerful but to create the European Dream to rival and even surpass the American Dream (Rifkin, 2004). The conditions Europeans are creating based on the characteristics or values mentioned make it appealing for immigrants from Asia and Africa to come to Europe or keep its citizens in their countries rather than emigrate. Their culture which is mostly communal is somewhat compatible to communal atmosphere of Europe as opposed to the individualistic spirit of the United States. In addition, the welfare systems further add to the appeal as it enables the citizens to be more productive knowing that their needs are taken care of by the state.
Looking at it from a different perspective however, the EU is keen on establishing economic cooperation with the United States as well even though no proper trade agreements have been made yet. They also see the United States as a major trading partner as well as a market for the products of their industries. It also wishes to adhere to the rules set by the World Trade Organization where several EU countries are also members as globalization is now becoming a byword in the economies of the world and parochialism has no place if the nations of the world wish to develop and advance.
5) How would you characterize US-European relations for the balance of this century It would be too early to tell how the relationship between the EU and the US will turn out with regards to the balance of power. According to analysts and keen observers on the developments of Europe, they attempt to dispel fears that the Europe would become a monolithic state that would rival the US in the balance of power. This could be made possible by anti-American sentiments in some if not most parts of Europe which have gotten wary of Americas global hegemony following the end of the Second World War.
In his novel, Cauldron, Larry Bond gives a hypothetical scenario of what could possibly happen should a war break out between the European Union and the United States. The gist of the story is that the European Union is under the leadership of France and Germany which sought to strengthen its power base by bringing their neighbors under their leadership and coercing those who are reluctant. Those who refuse to submit to their leadership turned to the United States and in a bid to strangle ties with the latter, the EU cuts off the flow of resources to these countries in a bid to make them turn to them and the more these holdouts refuse, the heavier the hand was applied through military intervention which once again brought the US into the theatre to set things right one more time. The story ends with the leadership of the EU changed and everything was restored to what it was. The only caveat here is that it is purely hypothetical and a work of fiction and should not be taken at face value especially since the French were the ones vilified in the novel. It has also depicted the British as the staunch ally of the United States and Russia being the wild card whose involvement would have altered the outcome of this hypothetical conflict (Bond, 1994).
In reality, this scenario is very unlikely to happen since the headquarters of the EU is in Brussels, Belgium and the leadership of the EU is rotational so no single leader remains for a long time to ensure that the member nations are properly represented and given a chance to lead the organization. Furthermore, with their growing power and influence, Europe would become less dependent on the United States than it was in the past century. It was American soldiers that came to the aid of Europe during the two world wars and American aid that even helped rebuild a devastated Europe. But with the growing influence of powerful nations, particularly France, they feel the United States has overstayed its welcome as a new kind of nationalism seems to be appearing on the horizon. This is one of the reasons why some, if not a lot of European countries do not have close economic or military ties with the United States.
Should complete unification take place, it is very likely that the EU will be able to manage their own security and foreign policy without the need of assistance from the United States like they did before and because of this, this would eventually lead to the dissolution of NATO as majority of its erstwhile members are now part of the EU. But the author would like to assure that this is one possible scenario that might take place. As of the moment, the EU still recognizes the existence and relevance of NATO and although plans are underway to forge a permanent securitymilitary agreement among member countries, European nations that are still part of NATO are still allowed to stay with the alliance. By far, NATO is one of the conduits which brings together the United States and Europe. Even though the Cold War was over for a decade, the unification of Europe does not mean the end of the relationship between Europe and the United States. Furthermore, the NATO leadership is balanced with the political leader (Secretary-General) being a European while the military commander is an American as a way of establishing a balance of power in the alliance.
The ongoing war on terror as well as the continuing volatile situation in the former Yugoslavia underscores the need of the continued partnership between Europe and the United States in security and military, not to mention the ongoing war on terrorism. Just because Al-Qaeda declared a jihad against the United States does not mean that Europe would be spared. The terrorist attacks in Madrid and London serve to remind that Al-Qaeda is determined to wage war against the western world as part of their crusade in upholding Islamic fundamentalism against the perceived evil forces of western culture.
However, looking at it from the American perspective, a unified European nation would satisfy the isolationists who would like to see the United States go back into isolationism where they can still prosper and grow without worrying about getting into foreign entanglements. This could possible cause the US to shift its focus and seek other places which would be of interest to them. Throughout history, the United States has had no vested interests in Europe and as mentioned earlier, the only time they intervened in Europes affairs was because of war which was also brought upon them. It is very likely that the United States would not want to get into any trouble especially when the next leaders after Barack Obama would follow the same policy tack he is doing now. Obama has already taken steps to reaffirm ties with Europe especially after the damage done to the relationship by the unilateral approach of the previous Bush administration which has even antagonized some of Americas European allies.
Even though it may take an isolationist stance, the United States should still regard the EU as a valuable ally even though it may be a rival or competitor in foreign trade vis--vis other nations. A valuable ally in the sense that they both need each other for security even though they give an impression they do not depend on one another anymore but with transnational terrorism being the rage today among terrorists out to commit mayhem worldwide, it will take the resources of both the US and the EU to address them to maintain peace and order.
In Europes recent history, moves have been made to unify the continent into one big community, hence the drive to create the European Union. If there was one thing that had set the wheels of unification in motion, it is the European sense of community as opposed to the spirit of (individual) autonomy in the United States. The forces of unification are the ones behind this drive, initially made up of France, (West) Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. The visionaries of unification bore witness to the horrors of the Second World War which saw the devastation of most of Europe. They hoped that by unification, they would prevent future armed conflicts between neighbors and secure lasting peace in the continent. The road to unification began when neighboring European countries began entering into treaties which called for a common market as these countries gradually lifted trade and customs restrictions on one another to allow for the free movement of goods among them then later it slowly evolved into security agreements among these neighbors which saw the cooperation of their respective armed forces and participating in joint military exercises to affirm this cooperation. Over time, other European nations have signified their intention of joining this union as their economies became stable and at par with the other member countries economies.
On the other end of the spectrum are the forces of nationalism which are mostly found in the east and a smattering of them in central Europe. One example of existing forces of nationalism are the Bosnian Serbs who are fiercely independent and do not like the thought of living under a foreign ruler. Incidentally, they are the ones who fired the opening shots of the First World War. To date, such forces are very small and the circumstances are in favor of the forces of unification as all of Europe seeks to put their forgettable past behind. It is also interesting to note that it was nationalism that caused wars on the continent, particularly the last two world wars. It is a nationalism not limited to merely love for ones country but pride and at the same time (unfortunately) is antagonistic and sees its neighbors as potentially hostile or a threat. In addition, there are also forces of nationalism within the EU member states especially those immensely proud of their culture and heritage and they see this unification as nothing more than an attempt at hegemony. Despite the drive for unification, one of the issues Europeans have to get over which proves to be a challenge is to put behind centuries of animosity or rancor that has made Europe a battleground for several centuries. This hidden animosity could undermine the unity and integrity of the EU if it aims to become one monolithic state.
Unification aims to remove that mentality and create a new one that calls for not only community relationships, but also an improvement in the quality of life, sustained development, respect for universal rights and global cooperation. This is what most people in Europe share after seeing (and learning through history) what wars can do if there is no sense of community and if nationalism would be unchecked and would clash with another nationalism. (Rifkin, 2004).
2) How is Europe likely to conduct itself as a major world power
As a major world power. It intends to rival the current world power, the United States as well as incipient economic powers of Asia such as Japan and China. It would try to compete aggressively in the world market especially as the Euro continues to show signs of strengthening against the reigning US Dollar. Besides competing, it also intends to cooperate or establish stronger economic ties with countries that the US also does business with such as China ad Japan especially in the exchange of goods and technology. In a show of unity, it intends to have its own foreign service arm and will be able to put up embassies worldwide and to be able to enter into international treaties and agreements in behalf of its diverse memberships.
As of the moment, there are other matters that have yet to become a reality for this scenario to happen. One is the need for strong governance. Despite the existence of a European Parliament, it still lacks the clout of the national parliaments of the member nations as well as visionary leadership that can unify all the member nations together and encourage them to work together for the good of the continent, if not the nation (EU). Another factor to consider is not all European nations economies are stable enough to enable them to join the EU, most especially those from eastern Europe whose economies still need to be brought up to speed following decades of communist rule.
Another possible impediment to Europes rise as a world power would be to maintain harmony among its member nations. This heterogenous continent while its population can make it powerful can also undermine it at the same time and it has to maintain a delicate balance in promoting what is good for all of Europe while at the same time not marginalizing or showing no regard for minority groups.
3) What will Europes role in the world be, militarily
As a military power, one advantage the EU will have over the other existing military powers such as the US, China and Russia (should it choose to remain autonomous) is manpower. In terms of size, they would either match or surpass the armed forces. Another factor that should be taken into consideration is that they would rival also the armed forces of the United States in terms of quality and technology. Through the military, it would rival the US not only in terms of global security but also in humanitarian and peacekeeping efforts in troubled regions in the world. Because of this, the creation of an EU armed forces would eliminate the need for NATO since the very reasons for its existence are now gone and the EU is poised to take over the role it has been doing for decades. On the other hand, this can be a blessing for the US since they can only do so much in terms of stretching their resources especially in providing aid and continuing the ongoing war on terrorism.
In terms of leadership, it is very likely that either France or Germany would take the lead in commanding the combined armed forces of the EU. Historically, these two countries have been considered military powers and history can attest to their qualifications. Britain despite being part of the EU is not likely to be active here as it continues to enjoy close military ties with the US (and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) owing to the special relationship between the two countries that date back to the Second World War. In addition, it also finds comfort in being part of the Commonwealth of Nations, a league of nations that used to be Britains former colonies. As far as the French are concerned, the British, also owing to their insular mentality would not be considered a vital cog in the EUs efforts to become a major power. Russia is also unlikely to be part of the military leadership and though it will try to maintain close ties with the western European nations while maintaining its autonomy. Another reason why Russia would not be a part of the EU is the continuing fear and wariness of nations towards Russia which happens to be the largest country in the world with a land area that straddles Asia.
4) How great will European power and prestige be, from an economic standpoint
In terms of the economy, the EU is seen as a common market among the member states where a unified internal trade zone. Long before the EU was created, the pioneering members had already laid down provisions governing the trade and commerce of each member (as well as those who would later join) where their goods would not be heavily taxed much like the relationship between the states in the US. With a united Europe, all the resoures would be pooled to help make its industry and economy much stronger so as long as there is an established mechanism for governing it. By this sharing of resources, it would make Europeans realize that cooperation is the key to their growth and development and it has proven to be far better than going to war with one another to forcefully acquire these resources. As an old aphorism goes, war is robbery writ large.
One edge that Europe has over the US is their mentality towards the economy. They put more emphasis in improving the quality of life of its citizens over the acquisition of wealth which is the prevalent mentality in the US with free enterprise and competitiveness. Most European states such as Sweden and Germany have established welfare systems that ensure that its citizens are taken care of socially. There is also the desire for sustained development over material growth. These are the factors that are not only bound to make Europe economically powerful but to create the European Dream to rival and even surpass the American Dream (Rifkin, 2004). The conditions Europeans are creating based on the characteristics or values mentioned make it appealing for immigrants from Asia and Africa to come to Europe or keep its citizens in their countries rather than emigrate. Their culture which is mostly communal is somewhat compatible to communal atmosphere of Europe as opposed to the individualistic spirit of the United States. In addition, the welfare systems further add to the appeal as it enables the citizens to be more productive knowing that their needs are taken care of by the state.
Looking at it from a different perspective however, the EU is keen on establishing economic cooperation with the United States as well even though no proper trade agreements have been made yet. They also see the United States as a major trading partner as well as a market for the products of their industries. It also wishes to adhere to the rules set by the World Trade Organization where several EU countries are also members as globalization is now becoming a byword in the economies of the world and parochialism has no place if the nations of the world wish to develop and advance.
5) How would you characterize US-European relations for the balance of this century It would be too early to tell how the relationship between the EU and the US will turn out with regards to the balance of power. According to analysts and keen observers on the developments of Europe, they attempt to dispel fears that the Europe would become a monolithic state that would rival the US in the balance of power. This could be made possible by anti-American sentiments in some if not most parts of Europe which have gotten wary of Americas global hegemony following the end of the Second World War.
In his novel, Cauldron, Larry Bond gives a hypothetical scenario of what could possibly happen should a war break out between the European Union and the United States. The gist of the story is that the European Union is under the leadership of France and Germany which sought to strengthen its power base by bringing their neighbors under their leadership and coercing those who are reluctant. Those who refuse to submit to their leadership turned to the United States and in a bid to strangle ties with the latter, the EU cuts off the flow of resources to these countries in a bid to make them turn to them and the more these holdouts refuse, the heavier the hand was applied through military intervention which once again brought the US into the theatre to set things right one more time. The story ends with the leadership of the EU changed and everything was restored to what it was. The only caveat here is that it is purely hypothetical and a work of fiction and should not be taken at face value especially since the French were the ones vilified in the novel. It has also depicted the British as the staunch ally of the United States and Russia being the wild card whose involvement would have altered the outcome of this hypothetical conflict (Bond, 1994).
In reality, this scenario is very unlikely to happen since the headquarters of the EU is in Brussels, Belgium and the leadership of the EU is rotational so no single leader remains for a long time to ensure that the member nations are properly represented and given a chance to lead the organization. Furthermore, with their growing power and influence, Europe would become less dependent on the United States than it was in the past century. It was American soldiers that came to the aid of Europe during the two world wars and American aid that even helped rebuild a devastated Europe. But with the growing influence of powerful nations, particularly France, they feel the United States has overstayed its welcome as a new kind of nationalism seems to be appearing on the horizon. This is one of the reasons why some, if not a lot of European countries do not have close economic or military ties with the United States.
Should complete unification take place, it is very likely that the EU will be able to manage their own security and foreign policy without the need of assistance from the United States like they did before and because of this, this would eventually lead to the dissolution of NATO as majority of its erstwhile members are now part of the EU. But the author would like to assure that this is one possible scenario that might take place. As of the moment, the EU still recognizes the existence and relevance of NATO and although plans are underway to forge a permanent securitymilitary agreement among member countries, European nations that are still part of NATO are still allowed to stay with the alliance. By far, NATO is one of the conduits which brings together the United States and Europe. Even though the Cold War was over for a decade, the unification of Europe does not mean the end of the relationship between Europe and the United States. Furthermore, the NATO leadership is balanced with the political leader (Secretary-General) being a European while the military commander is an American as a way of establishing a balance of power in the alliance.
The ongoing war on terror as well as the continuing volatile situation in the former Yugoslavia underscores the need of the continued partnership between Europe and the United States in security and military, not to mention the ongoing war on terrorism. Just because Al-Qaeda declared a jihad against the United States does not mean that Europe would be spared. The terrorist attacks in Madrid and London serve to remind that Al-Qaeda is determined to wage war against the western world as part of their crusade in upholding Islamic fundamentalism against the perceived evil forces of western culture.
However, looking at it from the American perspective, a unified European nation would satisfy the isolationists who would like to see the United States go back into isolationism where they can still prosper and grow without worrying about getting into foreign entanglements. This could possible cause the US to shift its focus and seek other places which would be of interest to them. Throughout history, the United States has had no vested interests in Europe and as mentioned earlier, the only time they intervened in Europes affairs was because of war which was also brought upon them. It is very likely that the United States would not want to get into any trouble especially when the next leaders after Barack Obama would follow the same policy tack he is doing now. Obama has already taken steps to reaffirm ties with Europe especially after the damage done to the relationship by the unilateral approach of the previous Bush administration which has even antagonized some of Americas European allies.
Even though it may take an isolationist stance, the United States should still regard the EU as a valuable ally even though it may be a rival or competitor in foreign trade vis--vis other nations. A valuable ally in the sense that they both need each other for security even though they give an impression they do not depend on one another anymore but with transnational terrorism being the rage today among terrorists out to commit mayhem worldwide, it will take the resources of both the US and the EU to address them to maintain peace and order.
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